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Key Production Areas Keeping Watch for Potential Tropical Development by Weekend
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 31, 2011 11:00 ET
GAITHERSBURG, MD—(August 31, 2011) A disorganized cluster of storms over the Northwest Caribbean is being monitored for potential tropical development as it travels northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Almost all current model guidance suggests that this cluster could organize in the latter half of this week, becoming either a tropical depression or storm. While the models show agreement on low pressure formation, a definitive track, intensity, and timing are still very much uncertain. Unfavorable upper level wind shear, dry air to the north, and the large size of the disturbance each hinder rapid development at this time. As it drifts northwest this weekend, however, the disturbance should encounter very warm waters and lesser amounts of shear, potentially allowing for development over the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Some models have the storm stalling just off of the Texas Coast thereafter, while others show it moving towards Louisiana or even Florida. Regardless of where this system eventually tracks, it seems likely to pose at least some threat to short term oil and gas production.
“While plenty of pieces still need to fall into place, there is a clear risk to oil and gas production evolving within the Gulf of Mexico,” says Bob Haas, Weather Operations Manager and Meteorologist at MDA EarthSat. “It would be a stretch to think this could become the next Katrina or Rita, however, as an intense storm with long-lasting impacts does not appear to be in the cards.”
About MDA EarthSat Weather:
EarthSat Weather (http://www.mdainformationsystems.com) is the leading consulting group for weather risk and commodity weather products and services in the world. EarthSat Weather maintains a short-, medium-, and long-range forecast service; provides special reports on key market-moving concerns; and maintains high levels of communication, including 24/7/365 consultation with its worldwide client base. Our key clients include analysts and traders in weather risk, energy, and agricultural markets. MDA EarthSat Weather is a business area within MDA Information Systems, Inc., a provider of essential geospatial data and analysis for decision making.
For more information, please contact:
Chris Hyde
MDA EarthSat Weather
Director, Weather Marketing
MDA Information Systems, Inc.
240-833-8322
christopher.hyde@mdaus.com
