Seasonal Forecast Release: MDA EarthSat Weather Predicts the Series of Cold Winters to Continue

Gaithersburg, MD—(October 4, 2011) Another cold winter is on the way per the latest MDA EarthSat seasonal forecast. The outlook for the 2011-2012 heating season suggests the streak of bullish winters will continue across the country, with heating demand likely to exceed both the 30-year and 10-year normals nationally. Forecasters at MDA are predicting widespread colder than normal temperatures across the majority of the northern half of the United States, including the important energy consuming regions of the Midwest and East.

Among several forecast indicators used in the creation of this outlook, two were at the forefront. These included the return of a moderate strength La Niña event in the tropical Pacific as well as the expectations for more upper latitude blocking events throughout the season.

“Research suggests that the return of a cold ENSO event working in tandem with upper latitude blocking allows for better cold air transport into the lower 48, ultimately resulting in EarthSat’s cold outlook. Various aspects support the La Niña expectation including climate models, discussions with well-known researchers, and EarthSat’s own internal modeling. Blocking expectations hinge on spatial sea surface temperature (SSTs) patterns in the tropical regions, SSTs in the North Atlantic Ocean, and recent events and features in and around the polar region itself. As a whole, the colder than normal outlook in some of the higher populated areas of the US during the winter of 2011-2012 is projected to drive energy consumption to above normal levels once again,” says Travis Hartman, Energy Manager and Meteorologist.

In terms of precipitation, areas in the Pacific Northwest, as well as much of the northern U.S., area expected to see increased storm activity resulting in above normal snowfall totals for the season as a whole. For those across the drought-ridden areas of the South, another La Niña unfortunately offers little help for a reversal, with dryness and drought likely to continue.

Breaking down the outlook, the winter of 2011-2012 is expected to be:
- 4.1% colder than the 30-yr normal (2612 GWHDDs)
- 4.2% colder than the 10-yd normal (2610 GWHDDs)
- <1.0% milder than last winter (2749 GWHDDS)

About MDA EarthSat Weather:
EarthSat Weather (http://www.mdainformationsystems.com) is the leading consulting group for weather risk and commodity weather products and services in the world. EarthSat Weather maintains a short-, medium-, and long-range forecast service; provides special reports on key market-moving concerns; and maintains high levels of communication, including 24/7/365 consultation with its worldwide client base. Our key clients include analysts and traders in weather risk, energy, and agricultural markets. MDA EarthSat Weather is a business area within MDA Information Systems, Inc., a provider of essential geospatial data and analysis for decision making.

For more information, please contact:
Chris Hyde
MDA EarthSat Weather
Director, Weather Marketing
MDA Information Systems, Inc.
240-833-8322
christopher.hyde@mdaus.com